Black mass is a powdery intermediate material containing valuable metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel.
It is derived from end-of-life lithium-ion batteries and scrap generated at battery manufacturing facilities.
With the rapid growth of the electric vehicle (EV) market and the global push toward a circular economy,
black mass has recently garnered significant attention as a “next-generation resource.”
In this article, we explore the current price trends of black mass, the factors driving these changes,
and the outlook for the market in the coming years.
🔍 What is Black Mass?
Black mass refers to the powdered material extracted from end-of-life lithium-ion batteries
or production scrap. It typically contains high concentrations of lithium (Li), cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni),
and manganese (Mn), and is a critical feedstock for battery material recovery.
📈 Recent Price Trends (Spring to Summer in 2025)
As of April 2025, the average market price for NCM523 black mass has increased to $6.37/kg, up from $5.93/kg in March.
・Cobalt and nickel prices are stable to rising
・Lithium prices remain under pressure due to oversupply and weak futures markets
・Geopolitical tensions, such as cobalt export restrictions from the DRC, have driven prices higher
・EU export regulations on black mass are tightening, creating additional supply concerns
🌍Market Growth and Industry Developments
Since 2023, major market research firms have begun providing regular benchmark pricing for black mass,
contributing to greater transparency and market maturity.
Market size projections show strong growth:
2023: approx. USD 6.39 billion
2024: approx. USD 7.02 billion
2030 forecast: USD 12.59 billion, with an estimated CAGR of around 10%
Leading OEMs and recyclers in Europe and North America are actively expanding their black mass collection and recycling infrastructure.
In Asia, particularly in China, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, competition is intensifying.
Key differentiators in this landscape include:
・Advanced recycling technologies
・Expansion of refining capacity
These factors are expected to shape the competitive dynamics and scalability of black mass-related businesses in the coming years.
🔁 Past Volatility: A Historical Snapshot
📈 2021: Soaring Prices Driven by EV Boom
In 2021, the global surge in electric vehicle (EV) sales led to an explosive increase in demand
for battery raw materials. As a result, the market price of black mass
—closely linked to the value of its contained metals—rose sharply.
・Lithium prices increased nearly fivefold year-over-year,
・Cobalt prices more than tripled,
・These spikes drove black mass prices to record highs.
(Source: Forbes)
📉 2023–2024: Oversupply in China and the Lithium Price Collapse
From late 2023 into 2024, a significant expansion in the production of LFP (lithium iron phosphate)
batteries led to a lithium oversupply in China. This triggered a sharp reversal in pricing trends.
・In 2024, LFP-based black mass prices fell by 39% from their peak,
・NCM-based black mass also dropped, trading at just 72–75% of the value of equivalent refined materials.
(Source: Benchmark, DiscoveryAlert)
📊 Price Drivers Summary
| Factor | Impact on the Market |
| Lithium Prices | Oversupply leads to price declines; shortages cause upward pressure |
| Cobalt & Nickel Prices | Rising prices of these metals push up the value of black mass |
| Geopolitical Risks | Export bans or political instability in resource-rich countries can trigger price hikes |
| Trade Regulations & Policies | Export/import regulations in the EU, China, etc., can impact supply chains |
| EV & Renewable Energy Demand | Mid- to long-term growth in demand is expected to drive market expansion |
🔮 Market Outlook for Black Mass
In the short term, prices of black mass are expected to rise or remain at elevated levels,
driven by persistently high cobalt prices and increasingly stringent environmental and sourcing regulations in Europe.
However, if lithium oversupply continues—particularly in the Chinese market
—it could exert downward pressure on overall black mass prices despite localized strength.
Looking ahead to the long term, beginning around 2026, a sharp increase in the volume of
end-of-life EV batteries is expected to significantly boost black mass supply.
This may lead to bottlenecks in refining capacity, emerging as a new challenge for the supply chain.
✅ Summary
・Black mass is becoming a core resource in the EV recycling supply chain, with its market value
rising alongside global demand for sustainable battery materials.
・Its pricing is highly sensitive to fluctuations in metal prices, regulatory developments,
and geopolitical risks.
・As of Spring 2025, elevated cobalt prices and tighter export regulations in Europe are contributing to
a moderate upward trend in black mass prices.
📩 For inquiries regarding black mass trading or sourcing of recycled battery materials, please feel free to contact us.